If I were the Orioles GM…
Sticking in the American League East, the Baltimore Orioles seem to have a daunting task in front of them. The success of the Rays has to give them hope that if you build a quality team you can certainly outplay the heavy weight Redsox and Yankees.
So lets start off by taking a look at what is on the roster right now.
C – Ramon Hernandez ($8m)
1B – Aubrey Huff ($8m)
2B – Brian Roberts ($8m)
3B – Melvin Mora ($9m)
SS – Juan Castro ($1.1m)
LF – Luke Scott ~($0.5m)
CF – Adam Jones ~($0.4m)
RF – Nick Markakis ~($0.5m)
DH – Luis Montanez ~($0.3m)
SP – Jeremy Guthrie ($1m)
SP – Radhames Liz ($0.4m)
SP – Garrett Olson ($0.4m)
SP – Daniel Cabrera ($3m)**arb
SP – Chris Waters ($0.4m)
CL – Chris Ray? ($0.4m)
SU – Jim Johnson ($0.4m)
MR – George Sherrill ($1m)
MR – Lance Cormier ($0.5m)
MR – Jamie Walker ($4.5m)
MR – Dennis Sarfate ($0.4m)
Bench
C – Guillermo Quiroz ($0.4m)
INF – Scott Moore ($0.4m)
CI – Oscar Salazar ($0.4m)
This is about $50 million payroll on the 25 man roster.
There are certainly some bright spots here. The lineup has a pretty good amount of talent. Roberts, Mora, and Huff, are all productive veteran hitters. Jones and Markakis are a wonderful core to build a team around. Luke Scott is a productive player and would be a solid player on a contending team. The biggest problem with the offense is that SS is a black hole, and with Millar leaving they really don’t have any DH.
The pitching rotation looks like a black hole right now. Granted Cabrera has tremendous upside, and many sabermetricians see a lot of upside in Garrett Olson. Liz has a pretty live arm and some upside as well, but I think most of those guys really are mid rotation starters if everything works out. I do not see anything to like in Chris Waters. The bullpen has the potential to be as good as anyone’s. Chris Ray was a solid closer, Sherrill will be better if he is primarily facing Lefty’s, Jim Johnson had a very good year, Jaime Walker is a solid lefty out of the pen.
So now, what would I do if I were the Orioles GM?
I would start by going all out to get Mark Teixeira. If I get Mark Teixeira I can push Huff to DH, or even trade Huff for some talent (he has one year left on his deal and is fairly inexpensive, and some teams might prefer that, then to pay Adam Dunn).
Tex is from Baltimore and might even sign there if the money is similar, but not the most. Even though my team is probably a couple of years from seriously contending, Tex is young enough that he would still be a force when I am ready to compete. He would also give the fans some signs of hope and bring some fans back to one of the best stadiums in baseball.
Other than Tex I have a hard time seeing anyone worth spending big money on. I guess if I lost out on Tex I could justify signing Dunn to be my everyday DH for much of the same reasons stated above.
I also think that by May at the latest Matt Wieters will be up and my everyday catcher. While Ramon Hernandez is a good hitter for a catcher he is not good enough to Justify playing at 1B or DH. Again, like Huff I would seriously consider trading Hernandez for some prospects, your not going to get much for Hernandez because his OBP approached .300 last season. However, if a team was paying attention Hernandez showed his previous skill set in the 2nd half with a .285/.341/.446 line.
O’s fans have to be excited about Wieters; his bat is considered major league ready, as Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus said a couple of days ago.
Wieters can hit—shocking, huh? It’s no surprise that Wieters is batting .385/.529/.538 in his first eight Arizona Fall League games, it’s just more evidence that Wieters is ready for the big leagues.
The O’s also have a trio of near MLB ready Starting pitchers in Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, and Brian Matusz. All of whom have top of the rotation upside, though most see Tillman as the #1, Matusz as the #2, and Arrieta as the #3. If this trio arrives within the next year and actually starts to approach their potential..
A 2010 (maybe more a 2011) rotation of Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Guthrie, and then your choice of Liz, Cabrera, Olson for the #5 spot would be very close to what the Rays are sending out to the mound every day.
A little bit further down the pipeline are pitchers Chorye Spoone, and Brandon Erbe, both have enough upside to be productive MLB pitchers, and Erbe can hit the upper 90s with his fastball, so back of the pen could probably happen a bit faster then rotation.
There really isn’t any offensive prospect worth talking about. Billy Rowell has dropped off the face of the planet, but he is still young, and you are not a top prospect for no reason.
Based on all the information above, my main priorities as GM would be to move Huff and Hernandez and possibly Mora for prospects, I am not sure what I can get, but I would love some hard throwing low level arms, or maybe some decent offensive prospects. I would try my best to work out long term deals with Brian Roberts, and I would try to get Markakis under contract as well, as he should be a big part of the rebuilding project and I want to lock him before he costs me free agent money. I would also consider doing with Adam Jones what the Rays did with Evan Longoria and get him signed now while free agency is a far way off.
So after I extend Roberts, Markakis, and Jones and hopefully sign Mark Teixeira, I would then spend the rest of my budget on International Front, maybe I can find a Japanese player like Iwamura (a productive but not a star player who doesn’t require a huge posting fee. And more importantly, try to make a big splash in Latin America and get some big time prospects.
I also have the #5 pick in this years draft (which is protected so I wouldn’t lose it for signing Mark Teixeira), and I would really want to spend whatever money I didn’t spend on free agents on the draft. Signing guys who slip because of signability or injury concerns.
This strategy would hopefully give me an infusion of talented youngsters within the next 2-5 years to compliment my strong core of Adam Jones, Markakis, Wieters, Teixeira, Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta.
Also, come 2010 I really want to solve this black hole at SS, even if it means signing a guy like Khalil Green or Bobby Crosby, or even Marco Scutaro.
If everything worked out as planned my 2011 lineup would be
C – Wieters
1b – Teixeira
2b – Roberts
3b – Adrian Beltre (if my young players are all performing he would be a great defender and productive hitter in his early 30s)
SS – Khalil Greene (a solid offensive SS who is also solid defensively)
LF – Luke Scott
CF – Adam Jones
RF – Nick Markakis
DH – Huff (if not traded, or some other Free agent)
SP – Tillman
SP – Matusz
SP – Arrieta
SP – Guthrie
SP – One of the other young guys or could make a big play at a John lackey or similar SP in free agency to front a young rotation)
Overall, the task looks quite Daunting, but with some pretty talented core on the way, it would only take some smart/key signings and hopefully some more smart drafting and spending on amateur players to propel this team back into contention.
